Ch. 3Strategy #128

Strategy #128

Long-Legged Doji Volatility Entry

Entry Logic

  • Exact entry trigger: Place a buy-stop order above the high of the Doji and a sell-stop order below the low of the Doji.
  • Confirmation requirements: A Doji with very long upper and lower wicks, indicating extreme indecision and volatility.
  • Timeframe required: Any timeframe.
  • Location context: Can occur anywhere, but is more significant at key support or resistance levels.
  • Market condition requirement: A volatile market.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target(s): A measured move target based on the height of the Doji.
  • Scaling out rules: N/A.
  • Trailing stop rules: Use a fast EMA.
  • Exit on signal failure: If one order is triggered and the price then reverses to trigger the other order, exit immediately.
  • Exit on opposite signal: A strong reversal pattern.
  • Exit on time expiration: N/A.
  • Exit on momentum loss: N/A.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop location: If long, the stop is the low of the Doji. If short, the stop is the high of the Doji.
  • Soft stop rules: N/A.
  • Maximum dollar loss per trade: 1% of capital.
  • Maximum percent loss per trade: N/A.
  • Structural stop placement: On the other side of the Doji's range.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 1%.
  • Maximum daily loss limit: 2%.
  • Maximum weekly loss limit: 5%.
  • Maximum drawdown allowed: 15%.
  • Risk-reward ratio requirement: 1:2.

Position Sizing Model

  • Recommended sizing approach: Size based on the height of the Doji.
  • Volatility-based adjustment: The wide range of the Doji often requires a smaller position size.
  • Conviction-based sizing (A+/A/B setup): A+ for a Doji at a major weekly support/resistance. A for a Doji at a daily level. B for a Doji at an intraday level.
  • Scaling in rules: N/A.
  • Scaling out rules: N/A.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions to avoid: Low-volatility markets.
  • Specific setups required: A clear Long-Legged Doji.
  • Stock/instrument requirements: Volatile instruments.
  • Time of day restrictions: N/A.
  • Chop/news avoidance rules: N/A.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction assessment: The trade is taken in the direction of the breakout.
  • VWAP relationship: N/A.
  • Moving average relationship: N/A.
  • Range location: Can occur anywhere.
  • Higher timeframe alignment: N/A.

Trade Management Rules

  • When to move stop to breakeven: After a 1R move.
  • When to scale out: N/A.
  • When to add size: N/A.
  • How to handle fast moves vs slow moves: This is a volatility strategy, so fast moves are expected.

Time Rules

  • Optimal trading window: N/A.
  • Times to avoid: N/A.
  • Session-specific notes: N/A.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup criteria: A very long-legged Doji at a major S/R level, with a high-volume breakout.
  • A setup criteria: A Doji of average size at a minor S/R level.
  • B setup criteria: A Doji with shorter legs.
  • C setup criteria (avoid): A Doji in a quiet market.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instrument requirements: Volatile stocks, commodities, and forex pairs.
  • Volume/liquidity requirements: High volume.
  • Volatility requirements: High ATR.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Expected win rate: 45-50%
  • Average win size: 3R
  • Average loss size: 1R
  • Profit factor: 1.3 - 1.5
  • Expectancy per trade: 0.35R.

Failure Conditions

  • Market conditions where strategy fails: In low-volatility, trending markets.
  • Specific scenarios to avoid: A series of multiple Dojis.

Psychological Rules

  • Key mental discipline requirements: The ability to handle large price swings.

Advanced Components

  • Market regime detection: N/A.
  • Volatility/liquidity filters: N/A.
  • Correlation filters: N/A.
  • Multi-timeframe alignment: N/A.

Location

  • Where this setup is strongest: At major S/R levels.
  • Where this setup is weakest: In the middle of a range.
  • Location changes outcome: Yes.