Ch. 7Strategy #259

Strategy #259

Momentum Scalp (1-Minute Chart)

Entry Logic

  • Exact entry trigger: A 1-minute candle closes with a long body and a short wick, indicating strong momentum.
  • Confirmation requirements: The volume on the entry candle is at least 50% higher than the average volume.
  • Timeframe required: 1-minute chart.
  • Location context: The price is breaking out of a recent range.
  • Market condition requirement: High-volume, trending market.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target(s): 10-20 cents above the entry price.
  • Scaling out rules: No scaling out.
  • Trailing stop rules: No trailing stop.
  • Exit on signal failure: If the price does not move in the intended direction within 2 minutes, exit the trade.
  • Exit on opposite signal: If a reversal candle appears, exit the trade.
  • Exit on time expiration: Exit the trade after 5 minutes, regardless of the outcome.
  • Exit on momentum loss: If the volume dries up, exit the trade.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop location: 2 cents below the low of the entry candle.
  • Soft stop rules: None.
  • Maximum dollar loss per trade: $50.
  • Maximum percent loss per trade: 0.5% of the account.
  • Structural stop placement: Below the low of the entry candle.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.25% of the account.
  • Maximum daily loss limit: 3 consecutive losing trades.
  • Maximum weekly loss limit: 5% of the account.
  • Maximum drawdown allowed: 10% of the account.
  • Risk-reward ratio requirement: 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Recommended sizing approach: Fixed share size.
  • Volatility-based adjustment: Reduce share size by 50% if the VIX is above 30.
  • Conviction-based sizing (A+/A/B setup): A+ setups get 100% size, A setups get 75%, B setups get 50%.
  • Scaling in rules: No scaling in.
  • Scaling out rules: No scaling out.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions to avoid: Low-volume, choppy markets.
  • Specific setups required: A strong momentum candle on high volume.
  • Stock/instrument requirements: High-volume stocks with tight spreads.
  • Time of day restrictions: Avoid trading during the first 15 minutes of the market open.
  • Chop/news avoidance rules: Avoid trading around major news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction assessment: Trade in the direction of the 5-minute trend.
  • VWAP relationship: Enter long trades above VWAP, short trades below VWAP.
  • Moving average relationship: Enter long trades above the 9 EMA, short trades below the 9 EMA.
  • Range location: Enter trades near the edges of a defined range.
  • Higher timeframe alignment: The 15-minute chart should be in an uptrend for long trades, and a downtrend for short trades.

Trade Management Rules

  • When to move stop to breakeven: After the price has moved 10 cents in your favor.
  • When to scale out: No scaling out.
  • When to add size: No adding size.
  • How to handle fast moves vs slow moves: In fast moves, take profits quickly. In slow moves, be patient and let the trade work.

Time Rules

  • Optimal trading window: 9:45 AM - 11:00 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EST.
  • Session-specific notes: The strategy works best during the morning session.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup criteria: All entry criteria are met, and the higher timeframe charts are aligned.
  • A setup criteria: All entry criteria are met, but the higher timeframe charts are not aligned.
  • B setup criteria: Only some of the entry criteria are met.
  • C setup criteria: None of the entry criteria are met.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instrument requirements: Stocks with a daily volume of over 5 million shares.
  • Volume/liquidity requirements: The stock must have a tight bid-ask spread.
  • Volatility requirements: The stock must have a daily range of at least $1.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Expected win rate: 55%.
  • Average win size: $0.15.
  • Average loss size: $0.07.
  • Profit factor: 1.1.
  • Expectancy per trade: $0.02.

Failure Conditions

  • Market conditions where strategy fails: Low-volume, choppy markets.
  • Specific scenarios to avoid: Trading against the trend.

Psychological Rules

  • Key mental discipline requirements: Patience, discipline, and the ability to act quickly.

Advanced Components

  • Market regime detection: Use the VIX to determine the market regime.
  • Volatility/liquidity filters: Only trade stocks with high volume and volatility.
  • Correlation filters: Avoid trading stocks that are highly correlated with each other.
  • Multi-timeframe alignment: The 5-minute, 15-minute, and 60-minute charts should all be aligned.

Location

  • Where this setup is strongest: In high-volume, trending markets.
  • Where this setup is weakest: In low-volume, choppy markets.
  • Location changes outcome: Trading against the trend will likely result in a loss.