Strategy #266
Time and Sales Speed Scalp
Entry Logic
- Exact entry trigger: A sudden and dramatic increase in the speed of the time and sales tape.
- Confirmation requirements: The Level 2 order book shows a corresponding increase in order flow.
- Timeframe required: 1-minute or tick chart.
- Location context: Near a key support or resistance level.
- Market condition requirement: High-volume, high-volatility market.
Exit Logic
- Profit target(s): 5-10 cents above the entry price.
- Scaling out rules: No scaling out.
- Trailing stop rules: No trailing stop.
- Exit on signal failure: If the price does not move in the intended direction within 30 seconds, exit the trade.
- Exit on opposite signal: If the tape speed suddenly slows down, exit the trade.
- Exit on time expiration: Exit the trade after 60 seconds, regardless of the outcome.
- Exit on momentum loss: If the volume dries up, exit the trade.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard stop location: 2 cents below the entry price.
- Soft stop rules: None.
- Maximum dollar loss per trade: $50.
- Maximum percent loss per trade: 0.5% of the account.
- Structural stop placement: Below the low of the entry candle.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk per trade: 0.25% of the account.
- Maximum daily loss limit: 3 consecutive losing trades.
- Maximum weekly loss limit: 5% of the account.
- Maximum drawdown allowed: 10% of the account.
- Risk-reward ratio requirement: 2:1.
Position Sizing Model
- Recommended sizing approach: Fixed share size.
- Volatility-based adjustment: Reduce share size by 50% if the VIX is above 30.
- Conviction-based sizing (A+/A/B setup): A+ setups get 100% size, A setups get 75%, B setups get 50%.
- Scaling in rules: No scaling in.
- Scaling out rules: No scaling out.
Trade Filtering
- Market conditions to avoid: Low-volume, low-volatility markets.
- Specific setups required: A sudden increase in tape speed.
- Stock/instrument requirements: High-volume stocks with tight spreads.
- Time of day restrictions: Avoid trading during the first 15 minutes of the market open.
- Chop/news avoidance rules: Avoid trading around major news events.
Context Framework
- Trend direction assessment: Trade in the direction of the 5-minute trend.
- VWAP relationship: Enter long trades above VWAP, short trades below VWAP.
- Moving average relationship: Enter long trades above the 9 EMA, short trades below the 9 EMA.
- Range location: Enter trades near the edges of a defined range.
- Higher timeframe alignment: The 15-minute chart should be in an uptrend for long trades, and a downtrend for short trades.
Trade Management Rules
- When to move stop to breakeven: After the price has moved 5 cents in your favor.
- When to scale out: No scaling out.
- When to add size: No adding size.
- How to handle fast moves vs slow moves: In fast moves, take profits quickly. In slow moves, be patient and let the trade work.
Time Rules
- Optimal trading window: 9:45 AM - 11:00 AM EST.
- Times to avoid: 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EST.
- Session-specific notes: The strategy works best during the morning session.
Setup Classification
- A+ setup criteria: All entry criteria are met, and the higher timeframe charts are aligned.
- A setup criteria: All entry criteria are met, but the higher timeframe charts are not aligned.
- B setup criteria: Only some of the entry criteria are met.
- C setup criteria: None of the entry criteria are met.
Market Selection Criteria
- Instrument requirements: Stocks with a daily volume of over 5 million shares.
- Volume/liquidity requirements: The stock must have a tight bid-ask spread.
- Volatility requirements: The stock must have a daily range of at least $1.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Expected win rate: 60%.
- Average win size: $0.10.
- Average loss size: $0.05.
- Profit factor: 1.2.
- Expectancy per trade: $0.01.
Failure Conditions
- Market conditions where strategy fails: Low-volume, choppy markets.
- Specific scenarios to avoid: Trading against the trend.
Psychological Rules
- Key mental discipline requirements: Patience, discipline, and the ability to act quickly.
Advanced Components
- Market regime detection: Use the VIX to determine the market regime.
- Volatility/liquidity filters: Only trade stocks with high volume and volatility.
- Correlation filters: Avoid trading stocks that are highly correlated with each other.
- Multi-timeframe alignment: The 5-minute, 15-minute, and 60-minute charts should all be aligned.
Location
- Where this setup is strongest: In high-volume, trending markets.
- Where this setup is weakest: In low-volume, choppy markets.
- Location changes outcome: Trading against the trend will likely result in a loss.