Ch. 7Strategy #272

Strategy #272

Sector Momentum Scalp

Entry Logic

  • Exact entry trigger: A leading stock in a hot sector breaks out to a new high.
  • Confirmation requirements: Other stocks in the same sector are also moving in the same direction.
  • Timeframe required: 5-minute chart.
  • Location context: The sector is showing strong relative strength.
  • Market condition requirement: A trending market with clear sector rotation.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target(s): 20-30 cents above the entry price.
  • Scaling out rules: No scaling out.
  • Trailing stop rules: No trailing stop.
  • Exit on signal failure: If the stock does not continue to move in the intended direction, exit the trade.
  • Exit on opposite signal: If the sector starts to reverse, exit the trade.
  • Exit on time expiration: Exit the trade after 30 minutes, regardless of the outcome.
  • Exit on momentum loss: If the volume dries up, exit the trade.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop location: 10 cents below the entry price.
  • Soft stop rules: None.
  • Maximum dollar loss per trade: $100.
  • Maximum percent loss per trade: 1% of the account.
  • Structural stop placement: Below the breakout level.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.5% of the account.
  • Maximum daily loss limit: 2 consecutive losing trades.
  • Maximum weekly loss limit: 3% of the account.
  • Maximum drawdown allowed: 5% of the account.
  • Risk-reward ratio requirement: 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Recommended sizing approach: Fixed share size.
  • Volatility-based adjustment: N/A.
  • Conviction-based sizing (A+/A/B setup): N/A.
  • Scaling in rules: No scaling in.
  • Scaling out rules: No scaling out.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions to avoid: A market with no clear sector leadership.
  • Specific setups required: A strong sector with a clear leader.
  • Stock/instrument requirements: The leading stock in a hot sector.
  • Time of day restrictions: Avoid trading during the midday lull.
  • Chop/news avoidance rules: Avoid trading around major news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction assessment: Trade in the direction of the sector trend.
  • VWAP relationship: Enter long trades above VWAP.
  • Moving average relationship: The 9 EMA should be above the 20 EMA.
  • Range location: Enter trades at the breakout of a consolidation pattern.
  • Higher timeframe alignment: The daily chart of the sector should be in an uptrend.

Trade Management Rules

  • When to move stop to breakeven: After the price has moved 15 cents in your favor.
  • When to scale out: No scaling out.
  • When to add size: No adding size.
  • How to handle fast moves vs slow moves: In fast moves, take profits at pre-defined targets. In slow moves, be patient and let the trade work.

Time Rules

  • Optimal trading window: 9:30 AM - 11:00 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST.
  • Session-specific notes: The strategy works best during the morning session when sector themes are established.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup criteria: All entry criteria are met, and the sector is the strongest in the market.
  • A setup criteria: All entry criteria are met, but the sector is not the strongest in the market.
  • B setup criteria: Only some of the entry criteria are met.
  • C setup criteria: None of the entry criteria are met.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instrument requirements: The leading stock in a hot sector.
  • Volume/liquidity requirements: The stock must have a daily volume of over 5 million shares.
  • Volatility requirements: The stock must have a daily range of at least $1.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Expected win rate: 55%.
  • Average win size: $0.30.
  • Average loss size: $0.15.
  • Profit factor: 1.1.
  • Expectancy per trade: $0.03.

Failure Conditions

  • Market conditions where strategy fails: A market with no clear sector rotation.
  • Specific scenarios to avoid: Chasing a stock that has already made a large move.

Psychological Rules

  • Key mental discipline requirements: The ability to identify and focus on the strongest sectors.

Advanced Components

  • Market regime detection: N/A.
  • Volatility/liquidity filters: N/A.
  • Correlation filters: N/A.
  • Multi-timeframe alignment: The daily and weekly charts of the sector should be aligned.

Location

  • Where this setup is strongest: In a market with strong sector rotation.
  • Where this setup is weakest: In a market with no clear themes.
  • Location changes outcome: N/A.