TPO Count Imbalance Trade

Entry Logic

• Entry is a long position when there is a significant TPO count imbalance at a support level.
• Confirmation is a bullish candle closing above the imbalance level.
• Timeframe is the 30-minute chart.
• Location is at a key support level.
• Market is in a range or a slow uptrend.

Exit Logic

• Profit target is the next resistance level.
• Scale out 50% at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
• Trail the stop loss below the low of the last 3 bars.
• Exit if a significant TPO count imbalance appears on the other side.
• Exit on a bearish engulfing candle.
• Exit if the price does not move in your favor within 2 bars.
• Exit if volume dries up.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop is placed 10 ticks below the entry price.
• Soft stop is a close below the support level.
• Maximum dollar loss is $100 per trade.
• Maximum percent loss is 1% of the account.
• Structural stop is below the support level.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk 0.5% of the account per trade.
• Daily loss limit is 2% of the account.
• Weekly loss limit is 5% of the account.
• Maximum drawdown is 15%.
• Risk-reward ratio must be at least 1:3.

Position Sizing Model

• Use a fixed lot size.
• No volatility adjustment.
• Same size for all setups.
• Do not scale in.
• Scale out as per the exit logic.

Trade Filtering

• Avoid trading during high-impact news.
• Only trade at pre-defined support and resistance levels.
• Trade only highly liquid instruments.
• Avoid trading in the first 30 minutes of the market open.
• Do not trade in very volatile markets.

Context Framework

• Trend is sideways or slowly rising.
• Price is hovering around VWAP.
• Price is between the 20 and 50 EMAs.
• Location is at a support level.
• The higher timeframe chart (daily) shows a consolidation.

Trade Management Rules

• Move stop to breakeven after the first profit target is hit.
• Scale out at resistance levels.
• Do not add to the position.
• Take profits quickly.

Time Rules

• Optimal trading window is from 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST.
• Avoid trading during lunchtime.
• The strategy is best suited for quiet market conditions.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: Large TPO imbalance at a major support level with immediate bullish reaction.
• A setup: Moderate TPO imbalance at a minor support level.
• B setup: Small TPO imbalance with a delayed reaction.
• C setup: No clear TPO imbalance.

Market Selection Criteria

• Trade ES, NQ, and ZB futures.
• High liquidity is essential.
• Low to moderate volatility is preferred.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Expected win rate is 65%.
• Average win is 2R.
• Average loss is 1R.
• Profit factor is 1.3.
• Expectancy per trade is 0.3R.

Failure Conditions

• The strategy fails in fast-moving, trending markets.
• Avoid trading when there is a lack of order flow.

Psychological Rules

• Be decisive and act quickly on the signal.
• Do not get attached to the trade.

Advanced Components

• Use a market profile to identify the TPO count imbalance.
• Use a filter to measure the strength of the imbalance.
• Do not trade correlated instruments at the same time.
• The daily chart should confirm the consolidation.

Location

• Strongest at well-established support and resistance levels.
• Weakest in the middle of a range.
• The location of the TPO imbalance is a key factor in determining the trade's success.