Ch. 12Strategy #473

Strategy #473

Schaff Trend Cycle Trade

Entry Logic

  • Exact Entry Trigger: Enter long when the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) indicator turns up from the 25 level. Enter short when it turns down from the 75 level.
  • Confirmation: A strong candle close in the direction of the turn.
  • Timeframe: 15-minute, 60-minute.
  • Market Condition: Trending.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Targets: Exit when the STC reaches the opposite extreme level (75 for longs, 25 for shorts).

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Place stop below the most recent swing low.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 1% of account capital.
  • R:R Requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions to Avoid: Ranging markets.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Only take signals in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Take Profits: The indicator is designed to identify cyclical moves within a trend.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: During active trending periods.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: The STC signal aligns with a pullback to a key moving average.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Forex pairs.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 60-70%.
  • Profit Factor: 1.6.
  • Expectancy: 0.3R.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy Fails: In choppy, non-trending markets.

Psychological Rules

  • Discipline: Avoid taking signals that go against the primary trend.

Advanced Components

  • Filters: Use a 200-period EMA to define the primary trend.

Location

  • Strongest: As a pullback entry within a smoothly trending market.