Ch. 12Strategy #477

Strategy #477

Connors RSI Trade

Entry Logic

  • Exact Entry Trigger: Connors RSI is a composite of RSI, Up/Down Streak Length, and Rate-of-Change. Enter long when Connors RSI is deeply oversold (e.g., below 10). Enter short when it is deeply overbought (e.g., above 90).
  • Confirmation: Wait for price to close higher than its previous close for a long.
  • Timeframe: Daily.
  • Market Condition: Mean reversion.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Targets: Exit when Connors RSI crosses back above 50 for longs, or below 50 for shorts.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: A time-based stop of 5 days if the target is not hit.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 1% of account capital.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions to Avoid: Strong trending markets.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Only take long signals if the stock is above its 200-day moving average.

Trade Management Rules

  • Take Profits: This is a short-term mean reversion strategy.

Time Rules

  • Session Notes: A swing trading system with a short holding period.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: A Connors RSI reading below 5.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Liquid stocks and ETFs.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 70-80%.
  • Profit Factor: 1.4.
  • Expectancy: 0.2R.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy Fails: If used against a strong primary trend (e.g., buying a dip in a stock below its 200-DMA).

Psychological Rules

  • Discipline: Act quickly on exits; do not hold onto trades hoping for more profit.

Advanced Components

  • Filters: The 200-day moving average filter is critical.

Location

  • Strongest: For buying short-term pullbacks in a long-term uptrend.