Strategy #477
Connors RSI Trade
Entry Logic
- Exact Entry Trigger: Connors RSI is a composite of RSI, Up/Down Streak Length, and Rate-of-Change. Enter long when Connors RSI is deeply oversold (e.g., below 10). Enter short when it is deeply overbought (e.g., above 90).
- Confirmation: Wait for price to close higher than its previous close for a long.
- Timeframe: Daily.
- Market Condition: Mean reversion.
Exit Logic
- Profit Targets: Exit when Connors RSI crosses back above 50 for longs, or below 50 for shorts.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard Stop: A time-based stop of 5 days if the target is not hit.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk Per Trade: 1% of account capital.
Position Sizing Model
- Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.
Trade Filtering
- Market Conditions to Avoid: Strong trending markets.
Context Framework
- Trend Direction: Only take long signals if the stock is above its 200-day moving average.
Trade Management Rules
- Take Profits: This is a short-term mean reversion strategy.
Time Rules
- Session Notes: A swing trading system with a short holding period.
Setup Classification
- A+ Setup: A Connors RSI reading below 5.
Market Selection Criteria
- Instruments: Liquid stocks and ETFs.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Win Rate: 70-80%.
- Profit Factor: 1.4.
- Expectancy: 0.2R.
Failure Conditions
- Strategy Fails: If used against a strong primary trend (e.g., buying a dip in a stock below its 200-DMA).
Psychological Rules
- Discipline: Act quickly on exits; do not hold onto trades hoping for more profit.
Advanced Components
- Filters: The 200-day moving average filter is critical.
Location
- Strongest: For buying short-term pullbacks in a long-term uptrend.