Coppock Curve Trade

Entry Logic

• Exact Entry Trigger: Enter long when the Coppock Curve turns up from below the zero line.
• Confirmation: This is a long-only, long-term buy signal.
• Timeframe: Monthly.
• Market Condition: End of a bear market or major correction.

Exit Logic

• Profit Targets: Hold for a minimum of 12-18 months, or until a new major sell-off begins.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard Stop: A 20% portfolio-level stop.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk Per Trade: This is an investment timing tool, not a trading tool.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing Approach: Allocate a portion of the investment portfolio on the signal.

Trade Filtering

• Market Conditions to Avoid: Do not use for shorting or short-term trading.

Context Framework

• Trend Direction: The signal indicates a major shift from bear to bull market.

Trade Management Rules

• Buy and Hold: This is a long-term investment signal.

Time Rules

• Session Notes: Signals are extremely rare, occurring only every few years.

Setup Classification

• A+ Setup: A Coppock Curve buy signal after a major stock market crash (e.g., 2008, 2020).

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: Broad market indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones).

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win Rate: Very high for its intended purpose.
• Profit Factor: Very high.
• Expectancy: Very high.

Failure Conditions

• Strategy Fails: If used on timeframes shorter than the monthly chart.

Psychological Rules

• Discipline: The courage to buy when market sentiment is at its worst.

Advanced Components

• N/A

Location

• Strongest: At the bottom of a major bear market.