Strategy #553
Internal Structure Trade
Entry Logic
- Entry trigger: After a major impulse move (external structure), price makes a smaller, corrective pullback (internal structure). Entry is on the break of the internal structure's trendline in the direction of the main trend.
- Confirmation: A 5-minute candle closes beyond the internal trendline with a volume increase.
- Timeframe: 1-hour for external structure, 5-minute for internal structure and entry.
- Location context: The pullback should retrace to a Fibonacci level (e.g., 38.2% or 50%) of the major impulse move.
- Market condition: Strong trending market that is currently in a corrective phase.
Exit Logic
- Profit target: The previous external structure high/low.
- Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
- Trailing stop: Trail the stop below the 5-minute 20-period EMA.
- Signal failure exit: Exit if price breaks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
- Opposite signal exit: Exit if the external market structure shifts against the trade.
- Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 90 minutes.
- Momentum loss: Exit if the breakout from the internal structure lacks momentum.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard stop: 1 ATR below the low of the entry candle (for longs) or above the high (for shorts).
- Soft stop: A 5-minute close back inside the internal structure.
- Max dollar loss: $100 per trade.
- Max percent loss: 0.5% of account.
- Structural stop: Below the low of the internal structure pullback.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk per trade: 0.4% of account.
- Daily limit: 4 losing trades.
- Weekly limit: 5% drawdown.
- Max drawdown: 15%.
- R:R requirement: Minimum 2:1.
Position Sizing Model
- Sizing approach: Fixed fractional sizing.
- Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on the 5-minute ATR.
- Conviction sizing: Use 125% of normal size for A+ setups, as it's a high-probability trend continuation trade.
- Scaling in: Can add to the position on a successful retest of the breakout level.
- Scaling out: At 2R.
Trade Filtering
- Market conditions to avoid: Ranging markets with no clear external structure.
- Setups required: A clear impulse wave followed by a corrective, low-volume pullback.
- Instruments: Any trending instrument.
- Time restrictions: Best during the first half of the main trading session.
- Chop/news avoidance: Pause trading 30 minutes before and after major news.
Context Framework
- Trend direction: Aligned with the dominant, external trend.
- VWAP relationship: Price pulls back to the VWAP and finds support/resistance.
- MA relationship: The 1-hour 20 EMA is holding as dynamic support/resistance.
- Range location: Within the upper/lower half of the impulse wave's range.
- Higher TF alignment: The 4-hour and daily charts confirm the primary trend direction.
Trade Management Rules
- Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
- Scale out: At 2R.
- Add size: On a successful retest of the internal structure breakout.
- Fast vs slow moves: Expect a quick move towards the external structure high/low.
Time Rules
- Optimal window: 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST.
- Times to avoid: Lunchtime and end-of-day.
- Session notes: High probability during strong trending days.
Setup Classification
- A+ criteria: Pullback is a clean, three-wave correction (A-B-C) to the 50% Fibonacci level on low volume.
- A criteria: A clear pullback and a decisive break of the internal structure.
- B criteria: The pullback is choppy and complex.
- C criteria: No clear external trend is present.
Market Selection Criteria
- Instruments: QQQ, TQQQ, SQQQ, and other leveraged ETFs that have strong trends.
- Volume: High volume on the impulse, low volume on the correction.
- Volatility: High enough to create clear impulse moves.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Win rate: 65%.
- Avg win: 2.2R.
- Avg loss: 1R.
- Profit factor: 1.43.
- Expectancy: 0.43R per trade.
Failure Conditions
- The pullback is not a correction, but the start of a major reversal.
- The breakout from the internal structure is a fakeout.
Psychological Rules
- Requires patience to wait for the pullback to complete.
- Must have the conviction to enter when price is moving against the primary trend (during the pullback).
Advanced Components
- Regime detection: Use ADX to confirm a strongly trending market (ADX > 25).
- Filters: Use Fibonacci extensions to project profit targets beyond the previous high/low.
- Correlation: Trade in the direction of the overall market index (e.g., long tech stocks if QQQ is in an uptrend).
- MTF alignment: The trade must be in the direction of the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily trends.
Location
- Strongest: In a textbook impulse-correction-impulse sequence within a strong trend.
- Weakest: When the market is choppy and lacks clear directional bias.