Ch. 15Strategy #553

Strategy #553

Internal Structure Trade

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: After a major impulse move (external structure), price makes a smaller, corrective pullback (internal structure). Entry is on the break of the internal structure's trendline in the direction of the main trend.
  • Confirmation: A 5-minute candle closes beyond the internal trendline with a volume increase.
  • Timeframe: 1-hour for external structure, 5-minute for internal structure and entry.
  • Location context: The pullback should retrace to a Fibonacci level (e.g., 38.2% or 50%) of the major impulse move.
  • Market condition: Strong trending market that is currently in a corrective phase.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: The previous external structure high/low.
  • Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
  • Trailing stop: Trail the stop below the 5-minute 20-period EMA.
  • Signal failure exit: Exit if price breaks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • Opposite signal exit: Exit if the external market structure shifts against the trade.
  • Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 90 minutes.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if the breakout from the internal structure lacks momentum.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: 1 ATR below the low of the entry candle (for longs) or above the high (for shorts).
  • Soft stop: A 5-minute close back inside the internal structure.
  • Max dollar loss: $100 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 0.5% of account.
  • Structural stop: Below the low of the internal structure pullback.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.4% of account.
  • Daily limit: 4 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 5% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 15%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed fractional sizing.
  • Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on the 5-minute ATR.
  • Conviction sizing: Use 125% of normal size for A+ setups, as it's a high-probability trend continuation trade.
  • Scaling in: Can add to the position on a successful retest of the breakout level.
  • Scaling out: At 2R.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions to avoid: Ranging markets with no clear external structure.
  • Setups required: A clear impulse wave followed by a corrective, low-volume pullback.
  • Instruments: Any trending instrument.
  • Time restrictions: Best during the first half of the main trading session.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Pause trading 30 minutes before and after major news.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: Aligned with the dominant, external trend.
  • VWAP relationship: Price pulls back to the VWAP and finds support/resistance.
  • MA relationship: The 1-hour 20 EMA is holding as dynamic support/resistance.
  • Range location: Within the upper/lower half of the impulse wave's range.
  • Higher TF alignment: The 4-hour and daily charts confirm the primary trend direction.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
  • Scale out: At 2R.
  • Add size: On a successful retest of the internal structure breakout.
  • Fast vs slow moves: Expect a quick move towards the external structure high/low.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: Lunchtime and end-of-day.
  • Session notes: High probability during strong trending days.

Setup Classification

  • A+ criteria: Pullback is a clean, three-wave correction (A-B-C) to the 50% Fibonacci level on low volume.
  • A criteria: A clear pullback and a decisive break of the internal structure.
  • B criteria: The pullback is choppy and complex.
  • C criteria: No clear external trend is present.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: QQQ, TQQQ, SQQQ, and other leveraged ETFs that have strong trends.
  • Volume: High volume on the impulse, low volume on the correction.
  • Volatility: High enough to create clear impulse moves.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 65%.
  • Avg win: 2.2R.
  • Avg loss: 1R.
  • Profit factor: 1.43.
  • Expectancy: 0.43R per trade.

Failure Conditions

  • The pullback is not a correction, but the start of a major reversal.
  • The breakout from the internal structure is a fakeout.

Psychological Rules

  • Requires patience to wait for the pullback to complete.
  • Must have the conviction to enter when price is moving against the primary trend (during the pullback).

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Use ADX to confirm a strongly trending market (ADX > 25).
  • Filters: Use Fibonacci extensions to project profit targets beyond the previous high/low.
  • Correlation: Trade in the direction of the overall market index (e.g., long tech stocks if QQQ is in an uptrend).
  • MTF alignment: The trade must be in the direction of the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily trends.

Location

  • Strongest: In a textbook impulse-correction-impulse sequence within a strong trend.
  • Weakest: When the market is choppy and lacks clear directional bias.