Ch. 17Strategy #604

Strategy #604

Relative Volume Momentum

Entry Logic

  • Enter long when the relative volume is above 2.0 and the price is breaking out to new highs.
  • Confirmation: The breakout candle must be bullish and close strong.
  • Timeframe: 5-minute chart.
  • Location: Near the high of the day.
  • Market Condition: A strong uptrend.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Target: 2R.
  • Scaling Out: Not recommended.
  • Trailing Stop: The 10-period EMA.
  • Signal Failure: A close back below the breakout level.
  • Opposite Signal: A bearish reversal candle with high volume.
  • Time Expiration: End of the day.
  • Momentum Loss: A failure to make a new high.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Below the low of the breakout candle.
  • Soft Stop: A close below the 10-period EMA.
  • Max Dollar Loss: $80 per trade.
  • Max Percent Loss: 0.8% of account.
  • Structural Stop: Below the breakout level.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 0.4% of account.
  • Daily Limit: 4 losing trades.
  • Weekly Limit: 5% drawdown.
  • Max Drawdown: 15%.
  • R:R Requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.
  • Volatility Adjustment: No adjustment needed.
  • Conviction Sizing: Full size on A+ setups.
  • Scaling In: Not recommended.
  • Scaling Out: Not recommended.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions: Only trade in strong uptrends.
  • Setups: Look for breakouts with high relative volume.
  • Instruments: High-volume stocks.
  • Time Restrictions: Best in the morning session.
  • Chop/News Avoidance: Avoid trading around news.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Must be in a clear uptrend.
  • VWAP Relationship: Price should be above VWAP.
  • MA Relationship: Price should be above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs.
  • Range Location: Not applicable.
  • Higher TF Alignment: The daily chart should be in an uptrend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1R move.
  • Scale Out: Not recommended.
  • Add Size: Not recommended.
  • Fast vs Slow Moves: Let fast moves run.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST.
  • Times to Avoid: Lunchtime and the afternoon session.
  • Session Notes: Strongest in the morning.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: A clear breakout with relative volume above 3.0.
  • A Setup: A good breakout with relative volume above 2.0.
  • B Setup: A breakout with relative volume below 2.0.
  • C Setup: Avoid breakouts with low relative volume.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Stocks with a daily volume of over 2 million shares.
  • Volume: High relative volume.
  • Volatility: High volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 50%.
  • Avg Win: 2R.
  • Avg Loss: 1R.
  • Profit Factor: 1.0.
  • Expectancy: 0.0R per trade.

Failure Conditions

  • The strategy fails in choppy, sideways markets.
  • Avoid trading if the relative volume is low.

Psychological Rules

  • Be aggressive when the conditions are right.
  • Do not chase breakouts.

Advanced Components

  • Regime Detection: Use a trend filter.
  • Filters: Use a relative volume filter.
  • Correlation: Avoid correlated instruments.
  • MTF Alignment: Ensure higher timeframe alignment.

Location

  • Strongest: At the open of the market.
  • Weakest: In the afternoon session.