3. Central Pivot Range Trade

Entry Logic

Enter long when price breaks above CPR top (TC). Confirm with a 5-minute close above TC. Use 5-minute timeframe. Price must consolidate below TC. Market must be trending up.

Exit Logic

Target R1 or 1.5R. Scale out 50% at 0.75R. Trail stop below prior 5-minute low. Exit remaining position if price closes below TC. Exit at session close. Momentum loss means exit.

Stop Loss Structure

Place hard stop 10 ticks below CPR bottom (BC). Max dollar loss $150. Max 0.4% portfolio loss. Structural stop below the breakout candle low.

Risk Management Framework

Risk 0.75% per trade. Daily loss limit 2.5%. Weekly loss limit 6%. Require 2:1 R:R minimum.

Position Sizing Model

Size to risk 0.75% of capital. Volatility adjusts size; smaller size for higher ATR. Conviction sizing: A+ setups get 1.25% risk. Scale in rarely; only with clear confirmation.

Trade Filtering

Trade only NQ, ES. Avoid chop. Avoid news. Only trade after 9:45 AM EST.

Context Framework

Trade with the daily trend. Price must be above VWAP. Price must be above 20-period EMA. Narrow CPR width is favorable. Higher timeframe shows clear direction.

Trade Management Rules

Move to breakeven after 0.5R profit. Scale out 50% at 1R. Do not add to losing positions. Fast moves require tighter stops.

Time Rules

Optimal entry 9:45 AM - 11:00 AM EST. Avoid lunch hours. Session close 3:45 PM EST.

Setup Classification

A+ setup: Narrow CPR, strong break, high volume, clear higher TF trend. A setup: Narrow CPR, good break, good volume, moderate higher TF trend. B setup: Average CPR, decent break, average volume. C setup: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

Trade NQ, ES. Require average daily volume > 1M. Require ATR > 10 points.

Statistical Edge Metrics

Target 60% win rate. Average win 1.2R. Average loss 0.6R. Profit factor 1.5. Expectancy $30 per $100 risked.

Failure Conditions

Strategy fails if CPR break is false. Fails if volume is low. Fails if market reverses sharply.

Psychological Rules

Trust the setup. Do not overtrade. Focus on execution.

Advanced Components

Regime detection confirms trending market. Filter out wide CPRs. Correlation with SPY confirms NQ move. MTF alignment shows all timeframes trending.

Location

Strongest when price consolidates near CPR before breaking. Weakest when price is far from CPR.