First 15-Minute Range Trade

Entry Logic

• Entry trigger: Breakout of the opening 15-minute range (9:30-9:45 AM EST).
• Confirmation: Close outside the range on the 5-minute chart.
• Timeframe: 5-minute chart for entry, 1-minute for trade management.
• Location context: Entry taken in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.
• Market condition: Trending or range-bound market with clear support/resistance.

Exit Logic

• Profit target: 2x the width of the 15-minute range.
• Scaling out: Not recommended; this is a single-target trade.
• Trailing stop: Not used.
• Signal failure exit: Exit if price re-enters and closes inside the 15-minute range.
• Opposite signal exit: Not applicable.
• Time expiration: Exit trade if target is not hit by 11:00 AM EST.
• Momentum loss: Exit if price stalls for more than 30 minutes.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop: Placed at the midpoint of the 15-minute range.
• Soft stop: Not used.
• Max dollar loss: $150 per trade.
• Max percent loss: 0.75% of account.
• Structural stop: Below the low of the 15-minute range for longs, above the high for shorts.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 0.75% of account.
• Daily limit: 2 losing trades.
• Weekly limit: 4% drawdown.
• Max drawdown: 12%.
• R:R requirement: Minimum 1.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing approach: Risk-based position sizing.
• Volatility adjustment: Reduce size if the 15-minute range is wider than 1% of the stock price.
• Conviction sizing: Not applicable.
• Scaling in/out: No scaling.

Trade Filtering

• Market conditions: Avoid extremely high-volatility days.
• Setups: Only trade breakouts of clean, well-defined ranges.
• Instruments: Stocks with a daily ATR greater than $1.
• Time restrictions: Entry must be before 10:30 AM EST.
• Chop/news avoidance: Do not trade if a major news event is scheduled before noon.

Context Framework

• Trend direction: Trade with the 60-minute trend.
• VWAP relationship: Longs above VWAP, shorts below VWAP.
• Moving average relationship: Price should be on the correct side of the 50 SMA on the 15-minute chart.
• Range location: Trade breakouts of the established morning range.
• Higher TF alignment: The daily chart should show a clear trend or support/resistance level.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after the price has moved 1x the range width.
• Scale out: Not applicable.
• Add size: Not applicable.
• Fast vs slow moves: This is a set-and-forget trade.

Time Rules

• Optimal trading window: 9:45-10:30 AM EST.
• Times to avoid: After 11:00 AM EST.
• Session notes: Works well on quiet mornings after a trending day.

Setup Classification

• A+ criteria: Breakout with strong volume, aligning with all higher timeframes.
• A criteria: Breakout with average volume, aligning with the 60-minute trend.
• B criteria: Breakout with low volume.
• C criteria: Breakout against the higher timeframe trend (avoid).

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: Mid-cap stocks with high liquidity.
• Volume: Minimum 1 million shares traded daily.
• Volatility: ATR should be consistent.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win rate: 50%.
• Avg win: 2R.
• Avg loss: 1R.
• Profit factor: 1.0.
• Expectancy: 0R (breakeven before considering fees).

Failure Conditions

• Fails in choppy, directionless markets.
• Prone to false breakouts on high-volatility news days.

Psychological Rules

• Patience is required to wait for the 15-minute range to form.
• Discipline is needed to exit if the trade fails.

Advanced Components

• Regime detection: Use a trend-filtering indicator on a higher timeframe.
• Filters: Avoid trading if the pre-market range is excessively wide.
• Correlation: Be aware of sector-wide moves that can influence the trade.
• MTF alignment: Daily and 60-minute charts must be in agreement.

Location

• Strongest: In a trending market after a quiet open.
• Weakest: In a volatile, news-driven market.