2. Moving Average Volatility Expansion

Entry Logic

Price closes outside Bollinger Bands. 20 EMA crosses 50 EMA. Confirmation is increased volume (2x average). Timeframe is 15-minute. Location context is a breakout from consolidation. Market condition is expanding volatility.

Exit Logic

Profit target is the opposite Bollinger Band. Scale out 75% at 1.5R. Trail stop at 20 EMA. Signal failure if price re-enters Bollinger Bands. Time expiration at 45 minutes if no movement. Momentum loss if volume drops below average.

Stop Loss Structure

Hard stop is 1 ATR below entry candle. Soft stop is a close inside Bollinger Bands. Max dollar loss is $150 per trade. Max percent loss is 0.3% of capital. Structural stop is below the consolidation low.

Risk Management Framework

Risk 0.75% per trade. Daily limit is 2.5% loss. Weekly limit is 6% loss. Max drawdown is 12%. R:R requirement is 1.75:1 minimum.

Position Sizing Model

Size to risk 0.75% of capital. Adjust for volatility using 14-period ATR. Conviction sizing increases size by 30% for A+ setups. Scale in 30% on strong follow-through.

Trade Filtering

Only trade stocks with implied volatility > 20%. Avoid earnings season. Avoid low volume stocks. Trade only large-cap stocks.

Context Framework

Higher timeframe (hourly) shows consolidation. Price must be breaking out of VWAP range. 20 EMA must be accelerating away from 50 EMA. Entry must be at the high/low of the day.

Trade Management Rules

Move to breakeven at 0.75R. Scale out 75% at 1.75R. Do not add size after entry. Manage fast moves with tight stops. Manage slow moves with wider targets.

Time Rules

Optimal window 9:45 AM - 11:30 AM EST. Avoid pre-market. Avoid post-market.

Setup Classification

A+: Clear breakout, high volume, strong MA cross. A: Clear breakout, good volume, moderate MA cross. B: Moderate breakout, moderate volume, weak MA cross. C: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

Instruments: Large-cap tech (AMZN, TSLA, NVDA). Volume must be > 5 million shares. Volatility must be > 2% daily range.

Statistical Edge Metrics

Win rate 50%. Avg win 1.75R. Avg loss 1R. Profit factor 1.3. Expectancy 0.15R.

Failure Conditions

Strategy fails in range-bound markets. Strategy fails during news-induced spikes. Strategy fails on false breakouts.

Psychological Rules

Be patient for setup. Do not overtrade. Trust the system. Manage emotions.

Advanced Components

Regime detection uses VIX > 20. Filter for 60-minute Bollinger Band expansion. Correlation check with sector ETF.

Location

Strongest at market open. Weakest during midday lull.