End of Week Position Squaring

Entry Logic

• Entry trigger: A reversal of the week's dominant trend on Friday afternoon.
• Confirmation: A reversal pattern on the 60-minute chart.
• Timeframe: 60-minute chart.
• Location context: Trade against the weekly trend.
• Market condition: A strong trending week that may see profit-taking before the weekend.

Exit Logic

• Profit target: 50% retracement of the week's trend.
• Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 1R.
• Trailing stop: Trail the remaining position with the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart.
• Signal failure exit: Exit if the price makes a new high/low in the direction of the weekly trend.
• Opposite signal exit: Not applicable.
• Time expiration: Exit by the close on Friday.
• Momentum loss: Exit if the reversal stalls.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop: Beyond the high/low of the week.
• Soft stop: Not used.
• Max dollar loss: $300 per trade.
• Max percent loss: 1.5% of account.
• Structural stop: Beyond the most recent swing high/low on the 60-minute chart.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 1.5% of account.
• Daily limit: 1 trade.
• Weekly limit: 1.5% drawdown.
• Max drawdown: 5%.
• R:R requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing approach: Risk-based.
• Volatility adjustment: Not applicable.
• Conviction sizing: Not applicable.
• Scaling in/out: No scaling.

Trade Filtering

• Market conditions: Only trade on Fridays after a strong trending week.
• Setups: Only trade clear reversals.
• Instruments: Major market ETFs and large-cap stocks.
• Time restrictions: Entry on Friday afternoon.
• Chop/news avoidance: Be aware of any news that could affect weekend sentiment.

Context Framework

• Trend direction: Counter-trend trade.
• VWAP relationship: Not the primary indicator.
• Moving average relationship: Look for price to cross key moving averages on the 60-minute chart.
• Range location: Trade from the extreme of the weekly range.
• Higher TF alignment: The daily chart should show signs of exhaustion.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 1R of profit.
• Scale out: At 1R and 2R.
• Add size: Not applicable.
• Fast vs slow moves: Be prepared for a potentially sharp move.

Time Rules

• Optimal trading window: Friday afternoon.
• Times to avoid: Any other day of the week.
• Session notes: This is a swing trade that is closed out at the end of the week.

Setup Classification

• A+ criteria: A strong weekly trend with a clear reversal signal on Friday.
• A criteria: A moderate weekly trend with a good reversal signal.
• B criteria: A weak weekly trend or a weak reversal signal.
• C criteria: No clear setup (avoid).

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: SPY, QQQ, IWM.
• Volume: High volume on Friday is a good sign.
• Volatility: Moderate to high volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win rate: 45%.
• Avg win: 2.5R.
• Avg loss: 1R.
• Profit factor: 1.125.
• Expectancy: 0.125R per trade.

Failure Conditions

• Fails if the weekly trend is too strong and continues into the close on Friday.
• Avoid on weeks with no clear trend.

Psychological Rules

• Requires the ability to hold a trade for a few hours.
• Must be comfortable taking a counter-trend position.

Advanced Components

• Regime detection: Use a weekly trend filter.
• Filters: Filter trades based on the strength of the weekly trend.
• Correlation: Be aware of the overall market sentiment.
• MTF alignment: Look for divergence on the daily chart.

Location

• Strongest: After a multi-day trend in one direction.
• Weakest: In a choppy, range-bound week.