4-Hour Bias + 15-Min Setup

Entry Logic

• Entry trigger: 15-minute chart shows a double bottom formation.
• Confirmation: 4-hour chart is in an uptrend with price above the 50 SMA.
• Timeframe: 4-hour for bias, 15-minute for setup.
• Location: Entry taken near a support level on the 15-minute chart.
• Market condition: Established trend on the 4-hour chart.

Exit Logic

• Profit target: The next major resistance level on the 4-hour chart.
• Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
• Trailing stop: Trail stop below the 15-minute 50 EMA.
• Signal failure: Exit if the 15-minute chart closes below the double bottom low.
• Opposite signal: Exit on a bearish reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart.
• Time expiration: This is a multi-day swing trade.
• Momentum loss: Exit if the 15-minute chart shows declining volume.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop: Below the low of the 15-minute double bottom.
• Soft stop: A close below the 15-minute 50 EMA.
• Max dollar loss: $150 per trade.
• Max percent loss: 1% of account.
• Structural stop: Below the most recent swing low on the 15-minute chart.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 1% of account.
• Daily limit: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Weekly limit: 4% drawdown.
• Max drawdown: 12%.
• R:R requirement: Minimum 3:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing approach: Fixed fractional, 1% of account per trade.
• Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on the 4-hour ATR.
• Conviction sizing: Not used in this strategy.
• Scaling in: Not used in this strategy.
• Scaling out: 50% at 2R.

Trade Filtering

• Market conditions: Avoid choppy markets on the 4-hour chart.
• Setups: Only take long trades when the 4-hour bias is bullish.
• Instruments: Forex pairs and major stock indices.
• Time restrictions: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Chop/news avoidance: Be aware of major news events.

Context Framework

• Trend direction: Determined by the 4-hour chart's 50 SMA.
• VWAP relationship: Not applicable for this timeframe.
• MA relationship: 15-minute 20 EMA should be above the 50 EMA.
• Range location: Entry taken in the lower half of the 4-hour range.
• Higher TF alignment: The daily chart should also be in an uptrend.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
• Scale out: At 2R profit target.
• Add size: Not used in this strategy.
• Fast vs slow moves: Hold through both fast and slow moves.

Time Rules

• Optimal window: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Times to avoid: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Session notes: Not applicable for swing trading.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: Clear 4-hour trend, perfect 15-minute double bottom.
• A setup: Good 4-hour trend, but 15-minute setup is less clear.
• B setup: 4-hour trend is weak.
• C setup: No clear 4-hour trend.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SPX, NDX.
• Volume: High liquidity.
• Volatility: Moderate volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win rate: 50%.
• Avg win: 3.5R.
• Avg loss: 1R.
• Profit factor: 1.75.
• Expectancy: 0.75R per trade.

Failure Conditions

• Strategy fails when the 4-hour trend reverses.
• Avoid taking trades if the 15-minute setup is not well-defined.

Psychological Rules

• Patience is required to wait for the 15-minute setup to form.
• Discipline is needed to hold the trade for a larger move.

Advanced Components

• Regime detection: Use the daily chart to identify the market regime.
• Filters: Avoid taking trades if the 4-hour chart is overextended.
• Correlation: Check for correlation with other major pairs or indices.
• MTF alignment: Daily and 4-hour charts should be aligned.

Location

• Strongest: In a clear, trending market on the 4-hour chart.
• Weakest: In a ranging market.