Strategy #877
Weekly Support + Daily Hammer + 5-Min Entry
Entry Logic
- Entry trigger: 5-minute chart shows a breakout above the high of a small consolidation.
- Confirmation: Daily chart shows a hammer candle at a key weekly support level.
- Timeframe: Weekly for support, daily for hammer, 5-minute for entry.
- Location: Entry taken near the weekly support level.
- Market condition: Reversal at a key weekly level.
Exit Logic
- Profit target: The next major resistance level on the daily chart.
- Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
- Trailing stop: Trail stop below the daily 10 EMA.
- Signal failure: Exit if the daily chart closes below the weekly support level.
- Opposite signal: Exit on a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.
- Time expiration: This is a swing trade.
- Momentum loss: Exit if the daily chart shows declining volume.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard stop: Below the low of the daily hammer candle.
- Soft stop: A close below the weekly support level.
- Max dollar loss: $250 per trade.
- Max percent loss: 1% of account.
- Structural stop: Below the most recent swing low on the daily chart.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk per trade: 1% of account.
- Daily limit: Not applicable for swing trading.
- Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
- Max drawdown: 10%.
- R:R requirement: Minimum 3:1.
Position Sizing Model
- Sizing approach: Fixed fractional, 1% of account per trade.
- Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on the weekly ATR.
- Conviction sizing: Not used in this strategy.
- Scaling in: Not used in this strategy.
- Scaling out: 50% at 2R.
Trade Filtering
- Market conditions: Avoid taking trades in the middle of a weekly range.
- Setups: Only take trades at key weekly support levels.
- Instruments: Large-cap stocks and major indices.
- Time restrictions: Not applicable for swing trading.
- Chop/news avoidance: Be aware of major economic news.
Context Framework
- Trend direction: The weekly chart should show a clear trend leading into the support level.
- VWAP relationship: Not applicable for this timeframe.
- MA relationship: The daily 20 SMA should be turning up.
- Range location: Entry taken at the edge of the weekly range.
- Higher TF alignment: Weekly and monthly charts should be in alignment.
Trade Management Rules
- Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
- Scale out: At 2R profit target.
- Add size: Not used in this strategy.
- Fast vs slow moves: Hold through both fast and slow moves.
Time Rules
- Optimal window: Not applicable for swing trading.
- Times to avoid: Not applicable for swing trading.
- Session notes: Not applicable for swing trading.
Setup Classification
- A+ setup: Perfect alignment of weekly support, daily hammer, and 5-minute entry.
- A setup: Weekly support and daily hammer are good, but 5-minute entry is not ideal.
- B setup: Weekly support level is not as clear.
- C setup: No clear weekly support level.
Market Selection Criteria
- Instruments: IWM, QQQ, DIA.
- Volume: High daily volume.
- Volatility: Moderate volatility.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Win rate: 50%.
- Avg win: 4R.
- Avg loss: 1R.
- Profit factor: 2.0.
- Expectancy: 1.0R per trade.
Failure Conditions
- Strategy fails when the weekly support level does not hold.
- Avoid taking trades if the daily hammer is weak.
Psychological Rules
- Patience is required to wait for the setup to develop.
- Conviction is needed to hold the trade for a larger move.
Advanced Components
- Regime detection: Use the monthly chart to identify the overall market regime.
- Filters: Avoid taking trades if the weekly chart is in a strong downtrend.
- Correlation: Ensure the sector is also showing strength.
- MTF alignment: Monthly, weekly, and daily charts should all be in alignment.
Location
- Strongest: At major weekly support levels.
- Weakest: In the middle of a weekly range.