Ch. 28Strategy #877

Strategy #877

Weekly Support + Daily Hammer + 5-Min Entry

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: 5-minute chart shows a breakout above the high of a small consolidation.
  • Confirmation: Daily chart shows a hammer candle at a key weekly support level.
  • Timeframe: Weekly for support, daily for hammer, 5-minute for entry.
  • Location: Entry taken near the weekly support level.
  • Market condition: Reversal at a key weekly level.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: The next major resistance level on the daily chart.
  • Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
  • Trailing stop: Trail stop below the daily 10 EMA.
  • Signal failure: Exit if the daily chart closes below the weekly support level.
  • Opposite signal: Exit on a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.
  • Time expiration: This is a swing trade.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if the daily chart shows declining volume.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: Below the low of the daily hammer candle.
  • Soft stop: A close below the weekly support level.
  • Max dollar loss: $250 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 1% of account.
  • Structural stop: Below the most recent swing low on the daily chart.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 1% of account.
  • Daily limit: Not applicable for swing trading.
  • Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 10%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 3:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed fractional, 1% of account per trade.
  • Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on the weekly ATR.
  • Conviction sizing: Not used in this strategy.
  • Scaling in: Not used in this strategy.
  • Scaling out: 50% at 2R.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions: Avoid taking trades in the middle of a weekly range.
  • Setups: Only take trades at key weekly support levels.
  • Instruments: Large-cap stocks and major indices.
  • Time restrictions: Not applicable for swing trading.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Be aware of major economic news.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: The weekly chart should show a clear trend leading into the support level.
  • VWAP relationship: Not applicable for this timeframe.
  • MA relationship: The daily 20 SMA should be turning up.
  • Range location: Entry taken at the edge of the weekly range.
  • Higher TF alignment: Weekly and monthly charts should be in alignment.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
  • Scale out: At 2R profit target.
  • Add size: Not used in this strategy.
  • Fast vs slow moves: Hold through both fast and slow moves.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: Not applicable for swing trading.
  • Times to avoid: Not applicable for swing trading.
  • Session notes: Not applicable for swing trading.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup: Perfect alignment of weekly support, daily hammer, and 5-minute entry.
  • A setup: Weekly support and daily hammer are good, but 5-minute entry is not ideal.
  • B setup: Weekly support level is not as clear.
  • C setup: No clear weekly support level.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: IWM, QQQ, DIA.
  • Volume: High daily volume.
  • Volatility: Moderate volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 50%.
  • Avg win: 4R.
  • Avg loss: 1R.
  • Profit factor: 2.0.
  • Expectancy: 1.0R per trade.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy fails when the weekly support level does not hold.
  • Avoid taking trades if the daily hammer is weak.

Psychological Rules

  • Patience is required to wait for the setup to develop.
  • Conviction is needed to hold the trade for a larger move.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Use the monthly chart to identify the overall market regime.
  • Filters: Avoid taking trades if the weekly chart is in a strong downtrend.
  • Correlation: Ensure the sector is also showing strength.
  • MTF alignment: Monthly, weekly, and daily charts should all be in alignment.

Location

  • Strongest: At major weekly support levels.
  • Weakest: In the middle of a weekly range.