Ch. 28Strategy #884

Strategy #884

Weekly Pivot + Daily Trend + Intraday Scalp

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: 1-minute chart shows a micro-breakout in the direction of the daily trend.
  • Confirmation: The daily chart is in an uptrend and price is trading above the weekly pivot point.
  • Timeframe: Weekly for pivot, daily for trend, 1-minute for entry.
  • Location: Entry taken near the weekly pivot point.
  • Market condition: Trending market that is respecting pivot levels.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: 15-25 cents.
  • Scaling out: Not used for scalping.
  • Trailing stop: 7-cent trailing stop.
  • Signal failure: Exit if the 1-minute chart shows an immediate reversal.
  • Opposite signal: Exit on a strong opposite move on the 1-minute chart.
  • Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 5 minutes.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if volume dries up on the 1-minute chart.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: 7 cents below the entry price.
  • Soft stop: A close below the 1-minute 20 EMA.
  • Max dollar loss: $70 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 0.25% of account.
  • Structural stop: Below the 1-minute consolidation.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.25% of account.
  • Daily limit: 6 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 10%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed share size, e.g., 1000 shares.
  • Volatility adjustment: Not used for scalping.
  • Conviction sizing: Not used for scalping.
  • Scaling in: Not used for scalping.
  • Scaling out: Not used for scalping.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions: Avoid choppy markets.
  • Setups: Only take trades in the direction of the daily trend and above the weekly pivot.
  • Instruments: High-volume, tight-spread stocks.
  • Time restrictions: First 2 hours of the trading day.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Avoid trading during news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: Determined by the daily chart.
  • VWAP relationship: Price should be above VWAP on the 1-minute chart.
  • MA relationship: 1-minute MAs should be aligned with the trend.
  • Range location: Entry taken on a pullback to the weekly pivot.
  • Higher TF alignment: Daily and weekly charts should be aligned.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Not used for scalping.
  • Scale out: Not used for scalping.
  • Add size: Not used for scalping.
  • Fast vs slow moves: Take profits quickly on fast moves.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: After the first 2 hours of trading.
  • Session notes: High volume in the morning provides the best opportunities.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup: Clean daily trend, price at weekly pivot, strong 1-minute entry.
  • A setup: Good daily trend, but price is slightly away from the pivot.
  • B setup: Daily trend is weak.
  • C setup: No clear daily trend.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: BAC, C, JPM.
  • Volume: Minimum 5 million shares traded daily.
  • Volatility: High intraday volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 65%.
  • Avg win: 20 cents.
  • Avg loss: 7 cents.
  • Profit factor: 1.85.
  • Expectancy: 8.85 cents per share.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy fails when the daily trend breaks down.
  • Avoid using this strategy if price is far from the weekly pivot.

Psychological Rules

  • Quick decision-making is essential for scalping.
  • Discipline is needed to take small profits and cut losses quickly.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Not applicable for this strategy.
  • Filters: Only trade stocks with a spread of 1 cent or less.
  • Correlation: Not a primary factor.
  • MTF alignment: Daily and weekly charts should be aligned.

Location

  • Strongest: At the weekly pivot point in a trending market.
  • Weakest: Far from the weekly pivot.