Weekly Volume Profile + Daily Entry

Entry Logic

• Entry trigger: Daily chart shows a bullish reversal candle at a high-volume node on the weekly volume profile.
• Confirmation: The weekly volume profile shows a clear area of support.
• Timeframe: Weekly for volume profile, daily for entry.
• Location: Entry taken at the weekly high-volume node.
• Market condition: Price is reacting to a key level of support.

Exit Logic

• Profit target: The next high-volume node on the weekly volume profile.
• Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
• Trailing stop: Trail stop below the daily 10 EMA.
• Signal failure: Exit if the daily chart closes below the high-volume node.
• Opposite signal: Exit on a bearish reversal candle on the daily chart.
• Time expiration: This is a swing trade.
• Momentum loss: Exit if the daily chart shows declining volume.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop: Below the low of the daily reversal candle.
• Soft stop: A close below the weekly high-volume node.
• Max dollar loss: $250 per trade.
• Max percent loss: 1% of account.
• Structural stop: Below the most recent swing low on the daily chart.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 1% of account.
• Daily limit: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
• Max drawdown: 10%.
• R:R requirement: Minimum 3:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing approach: Fixed fractional, 1% of account per trade.
• Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on the weekly ATR.
• Conviction sizing: Not used in this strategy.
• Scaling in: Not used in this strategy.
• Scaling out: 50% at 2R.

Trade Filtering

• Market conditions: Avoid trading in low-volume areas of the profile.
• Setups: Only take trades at high-volume nodes.
• Instruments: Futures and major stock indices.
• Time restrictions: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Chop/news avoidance: Be aware of major economic news.

Context Framework

• Trend direction: The weekly trend should be considered.
• VWAP relationship: Not applicable for this timeframe.
• MA relationship: The daily 20 SMA should be turning up.
• Range location: Entry taken at a key support level.
• Higher TF alignment: The monthly chart should also be in an uptrend.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
• Scale out: At 2R profit target.
• Add size: Not used in this strategy.
• Fast vs slow moves: Hold through both fast and slow moves.

Time Rules

• Optimal window: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Times to avoid: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Session notes: Not applicable for swing trading.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: Perfect bounce off a high-volume node, strong daily reversal candle.
• A setup: Good bounce, but daily candle is not as strong.
• B setup: High-volume node is not as clear.
• C setup: No clear high-volume node.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: /ES, /NQ, /CL.
• Volume: High daily volume.
• Volatility: Moderate volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win rate: 55%.
• Avg win: 3.5R.
• Avg loss: 1R.
• Profit factor: 1.925.
• Expectancy: 0.925R per trade.

Failure Conditions

• Strategy fails when the high-volume node does not hold as support.
• Avoid taking trades at low-volume nodes.

Psychological Rules

• Patience is required to wait for price to reach the high-volume node.
• Conviction is needed to hold the trade for a larger move.

Advanced Components

• Regime detection: Use the monthly volume profile to identify the market regime.
• Filters: Avoid taking trades if the weekly chart is in a strong downtrend.
• Correlation: Ensure other correlated markets are also respecting similar levels.
• MTF alignment: Monthly and weekly volume profiles should be aligned.

Location

• Strongest: At major high-volume nodes.
• Weakest: At low-volume nodes.