Strategy #916
Momentum + Breadth + Relative Strength Triple Screen
Entry Logic
- Long entry: Stock is on a 5-minute momentum scan (up >2% on high volume), market breadth ($ADD) is strong (> +1000), and stock has high relative strength (>90).
- Short entry: Stock is on a 5-minute momentum scan (down >2% on high volume), market breadth ($ADD) is weak (< -1000), and stock has low relative strength (<10).
- Confirmation: Entry on a 1-minute pullback to the 9 EMA.
- Timeframe: 5-minute for screening, 1-minute for entry.
- Location: Near the high of day for longs, near the low of day for shorts.
- Market Condition: Strong trending day.
Exit Logic
- Profit Target: 3R or a major intraday level.
- Scaling Out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
- Trailing Stop: Trail stop below the 20 EMA on the 1-minute chart.
- Signal Failure: Exit if the stock loses momentum and breaks the 1-minute trend.
- Opposite Signal: Not applicable.
- Time Expiration: Exit by end of day.
- Momentum Loss: Exit if volume dries up and the trend stalls.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard Stop: 1-minute ATR(14) x 2 below entry for longs, above for shorts.
- Soft Stop: A break of the 1-minute uptrend/downtrend.
- Max Dollar Loss: $150 per trade.
- Max Percent Loss: 0.75% of account.
- Structural Stop: Below the last 1-minute swing low for longs, above for shorts.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk Per Trade: 0.75% of account.
- Daily Limit: 3 losing trades.
- Weekly Limit: 5% drawdown.
- Max Drawdown: 10%.
- R:R Requirement: Minimum 2.5:1.
Position Sizing Model
- Sizing Approach: Volatility-based position sizing.
- Volatility Adjustment: Position size is determined by the stop loss distance.
- Conviction Sizing: A+ setups (all criteria met perfectly) get 1% risk.
- Scaling In: Add to the position on a successful retest of the entry point.
- Scaling Out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
Trade Filtering
- Market Conditions: Only trade on strong trend days.
- Setups: All three criteria (Momentum, Breadth, RS) must be met.
- Instruments: High-volume, high-beta stocks.
- Time Restrictions: First 3 hours of the trading day.
- Chop/News Avoidance: Avoid trading on choppy days or during major news.
Context Framework
- Trend Direction: Aligned with the overall market trend for the day.
- VWAP Relationship: Entry should be above VWAP for longs, below for shorts.
- MA Relationship: Price should be above the 50 SMA on the 5-minute chart for longs.
- Range Location: Breakout from an opening range.
- Higher TF Alignment: Daily chart should be in a clear uptrend/downtrend.
Trade Management Rules
- Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 1.5R of profit.
- Scale Out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
- Add Size: Add on a successful pullback and hold of a key level.
- Fast vs Slow Moves: Let fast moves run, trail stop tightly.
Time Rules
- Optimal Window: 9:30 AM - 12:30 PM EST.
- Times to Avoid: Mid-day and late-day trading.
- Session Notes: Strategy relies on strong morning momentum.
Setup Classification
- A+ Setup: All criteria met, stock is a clear market leader.
- A Setup: All criteria met.
- B Setup: Only two of the three criteria are met.
- C Setup: Less than two criteria are met.
Market Selection Criteria
- Instruments: Stocks in play, gapping up or down with news.
- Volume: Minimum 500k shares traded in the first 15 minutes.
- Volatility: High ATR and beta.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Win Rate: 45%.
- Avg Win: 3.5R.
- Avg Loss: 1R.
- Profit Factor: 1.57.
- Expectancy: 0.57R per trade.
Failure Conditions
- Market Conditions: Fails in choppy, range-bound markets.
- Specific Scenarios: Fails if market breadth reverses suddenly.
Psychological Rules
- Mental Discipline: Must act quickly and decisively. No hesitation.
Advanced Components
- Regime Detection: Use market internals (TICK, TRIN) to confirm the market trend.
- Filters: Filter for stocks with a high short interest for short setups.
- Correlation: Avoid trading multiple correlated stocks in the same sector.
- MTF Alignment: 5-minute, 15-minute, and 60-minute charts should be aligned.
Location
- Strongest: At the market open on a strong trend day.
- Weakest: During mid-day chop.