Ch. 30Strategy #916

Strategy #916

Momentum + Breadth + Relative Strength Triple Screen

Entry Logic

  • Long entry: Stock is on a 5-minute momentum scan (up >2% on high volume), market breadth ($ADD) is strong (> +1000), and stock has high relative strength (>90).
  • Short entry: Stock is on a 5-minute momentum scan (down >2% on high volume), market breadth ($ADD) is weak (< -1000), and stock has low relative strength (<10).
  • Confirmation: Entry on a 1-minute pullback to the 9 EMA.
  • Timeframe: 5-minute for screening, 1-minute for entry.
  • Location: Near the high of day for longs, near the low of day for shorts.
  • Market Condition: Strong trending day.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Target: 3R or a major intraday level.
  • Scaling Out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
  • Trailing Stop: Trail stop below the 20 EMA on the 1-minute chart.
  • Signal Failure: Exit if the stock loses momentum and breaks the 1-minute trend.
  • Opposite Signal: Not applicable.
  • Time Expiration: Exit by end of day.
  • Momentum Loss: Exit if volume dries up and the trend stalls.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: 1-minute ATR(14) x 2 below entry for longs, above for shorts.
  • Soft Stop: A break of the 1-minute uptrend/downtrend.
  • Max Dollar Loss: $150 per trade.
  • Max Percent Loss: 0.75% of account.
  • Structural Stop: Below the last 1-minute swing low for longs, above for shorts.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 0.75% of account.
  • Daily Limit: 3 losing trades.
  • Weekly Limit: 5% drawdown.
  • Max Drawdown: 10%.
  • R:R Requirement: Minimum 2.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Volatility-based position sizing.
  • Volatility Adjustment: Position size is determined by the stop loss distance.
  • Conviction Sizing: A+ setups (all criteria met perfectly) get 1% risk.
  • Scaling In: Add to the position on a successful retest of the entry point.
  • Scaling Out: Scale out 50% at 2R.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions: Only trade on strong trend days.
  • Setups: All three criteria (Momentum, Breadth, RS) must be met.
  • Instruments: High-volume, high-beta stocks.
  • Time Restrictions: First 3 hours of the trading day.
  • Chop/News Avoidance: Avoid trading on choppy days or during major news.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Aligned with the overall market trend for the day.
  • VWAP Relationship: Entry should be above VWAP for longs, below for shorts.
  • MA Relationship: Price should be above the 50 SMA on the 5-minute chart for longs.
  • Range Location: Breakout from an opening range.
  • Higher TF Alignment: Daily chart should be in a clear uptrend/downtrend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 1.5R of profit.
  • Scale Out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
  • Add Size: Add on a successful pullback and hold of a key level.
  • Fast vs Slow Moves: Let fast moves run, trail stop tightly.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: 9:30 AM - 12:30 PM EST.
  • Times to Avoid: Mid-day and late-day trading.
  • Session Notes: Strategy relies on strong morning momentum.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: All criteria met, stock is a clear market leader.
  • A Setup: All criteria met.
  • B Setup: Only two of the three criteria are met.
  • C Setup: Less than two criteria are met.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Stocks in play, gapping up or down with news.
  • Volume: Minimum 500k shares traded in the first 15 minutes.
  • Volatility: High ATR and beta.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 45%.
  • Avg Win: 3.5R.
  • Avg Loss: 1R.
  • Profit Factor: 1.57.
  • Expectancy: 0.57R per trade.

Failure Conditions

  • Market Conditions: Fails in choppy, range-bound markets.
  • Specific Scenarios: Fails if market breadth reverses suddenly.

Psychological Rules

  • Mental Discipline: Must act quickly and decisively. No hesitation.

Advanced Components

  • Regime Detection: Use market internals (TICK, TRIN) to confirm the market trend.
  • Filters: Filter for stocks with a high short interest for short setups.
  • Correlation: Avoid trading multiple correlated stocks in the same sector.
  • MTF Alignment: 5-minute, 15-minute, and 60-minute charts should be aligned.

Location

  • Strongest: At the market open on a strong trend day.
  • Weakest: During mid-day chop.