Secondary Offering Trade

Entry Logic

• Exact Entry Trigger: A company announces a secondary offering at a discount to the current market price.
• Confirmation: The stock price drops to the offering price.
• Timeframe: 15-minute chart for entry.
• Location Context: At the offering price.
• Market Condition: Neutral or bearish market.

Exit Logic

• Profit Target(s): 5% profit target.
• Scaling Out: Not recommended.
• Trailing Stop: Not recommended.
• Signal Failure: The offering is canceled.
• Opposite Signal: The stock price rallies above the pre-announcement price.
• Time Expiration: The offering is completed.
• Momentum Loss: Not applicable.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard Stop: 3% below the offering price.
• Soft Stop: Not recommended.
• Maximum Dollar Loss: $300 per trade.
• Maximum Percent Loss: 3% of the trade value.
• Structural Stop: Below the offering price.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk Per Trade: 0.3% of the account.
• Maximum Daily Loss: 1% of the account.
• Maximum Weekly Loss: 3% of the account.
• Maximum Drawdown: 10% of the account.
• R:R Requirement: Minimum 1.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing Approach: Fixed dollar amount per trade.
• Volatility Adjustment: Not applicable.
• Conviction Sizing: Not applicable.
• Scaling In: Not recommended.
• Scaling Out: Not recommended.

Trade Filtering

• Market Conditions to Avoid: Bullish markets.
• Specific Setups: Only trade secondary offerings with a significant discount.
• Instrument Requirements: Companies with a history of successful offerings.
• Time Restrictions: Not applicable.
• Chop/News Avoidance: Avoid offerings with a lot of negative news.

Context Framework

• Trend Direction: Not applicable.
• VWAP Relationship: Not applicable.
• MA Relationship: Not applicable.
• Range Location: At the offering price.
• Higher TF Alignment: Not applicable.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Not applicable.
• Scale Out: Not applicable.
• Add Size: Not applicable.
• Fast vs Slow Moves: Not applicable.

Time Rules

• Optimal Window: As soon as the offering is announced.
• Times to Avoid: Not applicable.
• Session Notes: Not applicable.

Setup Classification

• A+ Criteria: All conditions met, significant discount.
• A Criteria: All conditions met.
• B Criteria: Missing one condition.
• C Criteria: Missing more than one condition.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: Stocks.
• Volume: High trading volume.
• Volatility: Low volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win Rate: 70-80%.
• Avg Win: 3-5%.
• Avg Loss: 2-3%.
• Profit Factor: 2.0-2.5.
• Expectancy: Positive.

Failure Conditions

• Market Conditions: Fails if the offering is canceled.
• Specific Scenarios: Fails if the discount is not significant.

Psychological Rules

• Mental Discipline: Be patient. This is a slow-moving strategy.

Advanced Components

• Regime Detection: Not applicable.
• Filters: Filter for companies with a strong balance sheet.
• Correlation: Not applicable.
• MTF Alignment: Not applicable.

Location

• Where Strongest: In a market with a lot of secondary offerings.
• Where Weakest: In a market with few secondary offerings.