Ch. 7Strategy #285

Strategy #285

Absorption Scalp

Entry Logic

  • Exact entry trigger: A large number of market orders are being absorbed at a specific price level without the price moving.
  • Confirmation requirements: The bid or offer at that level is refreshing, indicating a large passive order.
  • Timeframe required: DOM and time and sales.
  • Location context: N/A.
  • Market condition requirement: A volatile market.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target(s): 10-15 cents in the opposite direction of the absorption.
  • Scaling out rules: No scaling out.
  • Trailing stop rules: No trailing stop.
  • Exit on signal failure: If the price breaks through the absorption level, exit the trade.
  • Exit on opposite signal: If the passive order is pulled, exit the trade.
  • Exit on time expiration: Exit the trade after 5 minutes, regardless of the outcome.
  • Exit on momentum loss: If the volume dries up, exit the trade.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop location: 5 cents on the other side of the absorption level.
  • Soft stop rules: None.
  • Maximum dollar loss per trade: $50.
  • Maximum percent loss per trade: 0.5% of the account.
  • Structural stop placement: N/A.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.25% of the account.
  • Maximum daily loss limit: 3 consecutive losing trades.
  • Maximum weekly loss limit: 5% of the account.
  • Maximum drawdown allowed: 10% of the account.
  • Risk-reward ratio requirement: 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Recommended sizing approach: Fixed share size.
  • Volatility-based adjustment: N/A.
  • Conviction-based sizing (A+/A/B setup): N/A.
  • Scaling in rules: No scaling in.
  • Scaling out rules: No scaling out.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions to avoid: A slow or illiquid market.
  • Specific setups required: Clear absorption on the time and sales and DOM.
  • Stock/instrument requirements: High-volume stocks.
  • Time of day restrictions: N/A.
  • Chop/news avoidance rules: Avoid trading around major news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction assessment: N/A.
  • VWAP relationship: N/A.
  • Moving average relationship: N/A.
  • Range location: N/A.
  • Higher timeframe alignment: N/A.

Trade Management Rules

  • When to move stop to breakeven: After the price has moved 10 cents in your favor.
  • When to scale out: No scaling out.
  • When to add size: No adding size.
  • How to handle fast moves vs slow moves: In fast moves, take profits quickly. In slow moves, be patient and let the trade work.

Time Rules

  • Optimal trading window: N/A.
  • Times to avoid: N/A.
  • Session-specific notes: This strategy can be used at any time of the day.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup criteria: All entry criteria are met.
  • A setup criteria: N/A.
  • B setup criteria: N/A.
  • C setup criteria: The absorption is not clear.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instrument requirements: High-volume stocks.
  • Volume/liquidity requirements: The stock must have sufficient liquidity to enter and exit the trade easily.
  • Volatility requirements: N/A.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Expected win rate: 65%.
  • Average win size: $0.15.
  • Average loss size: $0.05.
  • Profit factor: 1.95.
  • Expectancy per trade: $0.05.

Failure Conditions

  • Market conditions where strategy fails: A slow or illiquid market.
  • Specific scenarios to avoid: Trading against a strong trend.

Psychological Rules

  • Key mental discipline requirements: The ability to read and interpret order flow.

Advanced Components

  • Market regime detection: N/A.
  • Volatility/liquidity filters: N/A.
  • Correlation filters: N/A.
  • Multi-timeframe alignment: N/A.

Location

  • Where this setup is strongest: At key support and resistance levels.
  • Where this setup is weakest: In the middle of a range.
  • Location changes outcome: N/A.