Strategy #444
MACD Zero Line Cross
Entry Logic
- Exact Entry Trigger: Enter long when the MACD line crosses above the zero line. Enter short when the MACD line crosses below the zero line.
- Confirmation: The MACD histogram must also be on the same side of the zero line.
- Timeframe: 60-minute, Daily.
- Market Condition: Start of a new trend.
Exit Logic
- Profit Targets: Hold until the MACD line crosses back over the zero line.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard Stop: Place stop 2 ATR below the entry price.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk Per Trade: 1.5% of account capital.
- R:R Requirement: Let profits run.
Position Sizing Model
- Sizing Approach: Volatility-based sizing.
Trade Filtering
- Market Conditions to Avoid: Ranging markets.
Context Framework
- Trend Direction: The zero line cross defines the trend direction.
Trade Management Rules
- Add Size: Add to the position on pullbacks as long as the MACD line remains on the correct side of zero.
Time Rules
- Session Notes: This is a swing trading strategy.
Setup Classification
- A+ Setup: The zero line cross is accompanied by a breakout from a long-term consolidation pattern.
Market Selection Criteria
- Instruments: Stocks with a history of trending well.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Win Rate: 35-45%.
- Profit Factor: 2.5.
- Expectancy: 0.7R.
Failure Conditions
- Strategy Fails: In choppy markets with frequent zero line crosses.
Psychological Rules
- Discipline: Hold winning trades to capture large moves.
Advanced Components
- MTF Alignment: The weekly chart should support the new trend direction.
Location
- Strongest: At the beginning of a new multi-week or multi-month trend.