Ch. 12Strategy #445

Strategy #445

MACD Signal Line Cross

Entry Logic

  • Exact Entry Trigger: Enter long when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Enter short when the MACD line crosses below the signal line.
  • Confirmation: The cross should happen on the correct side of the zero line (e.g., long cross below zero is a stronger signal).
  • Timeframe: 15-minute, 60-minute.
  • Market Condition: Trending.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Targets: Exit on the opposite signal line cross.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Place stop below the most recent swing low.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 1% of account capital.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions to Avoid: Ranging markets.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Only take crosses in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1R move.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: Any time during the main session.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: A signal line cross that occurs as a pullback in a strong trend.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Any liquid instrument.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 40-50%.
  • Profit Factor: 1.7.
  • Expectancy: 0.3R.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy Fails: In choppy markets with many false signals.

Psychological Rules

  • Discipline: Avoid overtrading; focus on crosses that align with the broader market context.

Advanced Components

  • Filters: Use an ADX filter to only trade in trending markets (ADX > 25).

Location

  • Strongest: As a continuation signal in an established trend.