Ch. 12Strategy #464

Strategy #464

Williams Alligator Trade

Entry Logic

  • Exact Entry Trigger: Enter long when price closes above all three Alligator lines (Jaw, Teeth, Lips) and the lines are open and moving upwards. Enter short when price closes below all three lines and they are moving downwards.
  • Confirmation: The Alligator _s lips are green, teeth are red, jaw is blue.
  • Timeframe: 60-minute, Daily.
  • Market Condition: Trending._

Exit Logic

  • Profit Targets: Trail the stop and let profits run.
  • Exit Signal: Exit when price closes back inside the Alligator_s mouth (between the lips and jaw).

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Place stop below the Alligator_s Jaw (blue line).

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 1% of account capital.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions to Avoid: When the Alligator lines are intertwined and moving sideways (the alligator is "sleeping").

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: The Alligator defines the trend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Let Profits Run: Stay in the trade as long as the Alligator is "eating" (lines are open and moving).

Time Rules

  • Session Notes: A swing trading methodology.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: Entry occurs after the Alligator has been "sleeping" for a long time.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Any trending instrument.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 40-50%.
  • Profit Factor: 2.2.
  • Expectancy: 0.6R.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy Fails: In choppy, sideways markets.

Psychological Rules

  • Discipline: Have the patience to wait for the Alligator to "wake up" and start a new trend.

Advanced Components

  • Filters: Combine with Williams Fractals for entry and exit points.

Location

  • Strongest: At the beginning of a new, powerful trend.