Ch. 12Strategy #465

Strategy #465

Williams Fractals Breakout

Entry Logic

  • Exact Entry Trigger: Enter long one tick above a validated up-fractal. Enter short one tick below a validated down-fractal.
  • Confirmation: The fractal should be part of a larger trend structure.
  • Timeframe: Any.
  • Market Condition: Trending.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Targets: Target the next fractal level.
  • Opposite Signal: Exit on a validated fractal breakout in the opposite direction.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Place stop at the most recent opposing fractal.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 1% of account capital.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions to Avoid: Ranging markets with many overlapping fractals.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Only take fractal breakouts in the direction of the Alligator indicator.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1R move.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: Any time.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: A fractal breakout that occurs when the Williams Alligator lines are wide open.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Any liquid instrument.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 45-55%.
  • Profit Factor: 1.7.
  • Expectancy: 0.3R.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy Fails: In choppy markets.

Psychological Rules

  • Discipline: Wait for the price to break the fractal level before entering.

Advanced Components

  • Filters: Use the Alligator as a trend filter.

Location

  • Strongest: As a continuation signal in a strong trend.