Ch. 28Strategy #872

Strategy #872

Hourly Structure + 1-Min Scalp

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: 1-minute chart shows a micro-breakout of a small consolidation.
  • Confirmation: Hourly chart shows a clear support or resistance level.
  • Timeframe: Hourly for structure, 1-minute for entry.
  • Location: Entry taken near the hourly support or resistance level.
  • Market condition: Ranging market on the hourly chart.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: 10-20 cents.
  • Scaling out: Not used for scalping.
  • Trailing stop: 5-cent trailing stop.
  • Signal failure: Exit if the 1-minute chart shows an immediate reversal.
  • Opposite signal: Exit on a strong opposite move on the 1-minute chart.
  • Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 5 minutes.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if volume dries up on the 1-minute chart.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: 5 cents below the entry price.
  • Soft stop: A close below the 1-minute 20 EMA.
  • Max dollar loss: $50 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 0.25% of account.
  • Structural stop: Below the 1-minute consolidation.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.25% of account.
  • Daily limit: 5 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 10%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed share size, e.g., 1000 shares.
  • Volatility adjustment: Not used for scalping.
  • Conviction sizing: Not used for scalping.
  • Scaling in: Not used for scalping.
  • Scaling out: Not used for scalping.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions: Avoid strong trending markets.
  • Setups: Only take trades near clear hourly support or resistance.
  • Instruments: High-volume, tight-spread stocks.
  • Time restrictions: First hour of the trading day.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Avoid trading during news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: Not a factor in this ranging strategy.
  • VWAP relationship: Price can be above or below VWAP.
  • MA relationship: Not a primary factor.
  • Range location: Entry taken at the edge of the hourly range.
  • Higher TF alignment: Not required for this strategy.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Not used for scalping.
  • Scale out: Not used for scalping.
  • Add size: Not used for scalping.
  • Fast vs slow moves: Take profits quickly on fast moves.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: 9:30 AM - 10:30 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: After the first hour of trading.
  • Session notes: High volume in the morning provides the best opportunities.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup: Clean hourly level, tight 1-minute consolidation, high volume.
  • A setup: Clean hourly level, but 1-minute consolidation is less defined.
  • B setup: Hourly level is not as clear.
  • C setup: No clear hourly level.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: AMD, NVDA, TSLA.
  • Volume: Minimum 5 million shares traded daily.
  • Volatility: High intraday volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 65%.
  • Avg win: 15 cents.
  • Avg loss: 5 cents.
  • Profit factor: 1.95.
  • Expectancy: 6.75 cents per share.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy fails when the hourly range breaks down.
  • Avoid using this strategy in a strong trending market.

Psychological Rules

  • Quick decision-making is essential for scalping.
  • Discipline is needed to take small profits and cut losses quickly.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Not applicable for this strategy.
  • Filters: Only trade stocks with a spread of 1 cent or less.
  • Correlation: Not a primary factor.
  • MTF alignment: Not required.

Location

  • Strongest: At well-defined hourly support and resistance levels.
  • Weakest: In the middle of the hourly range.