Weekly Level + Daily Confirmation + Intraday Entry

Entry Logic

• Entry trigger: 15-minute chart shows a breakout of a consolidation pattern.
• Confirmation: Daily chart shows a bullish candle closing above a weekly support level.
• Timeframe: Weekly for levels, daily for confirmation, 15-minute for entry.
• Location: Entry taken near the weekly support level.
• Market condition: Reversal at a key weekly level.

Exit Logic

• Profit target: The next major resistance level on the daily chart.
• Scaling out: Scale out 33% at 1R, 33% at 2R, and let the rest run.
• Trailing stop: Trail stop below the daily 10 EMA.
• Signal failure: Exit if the daily chart closes back below the weekly support level.
• Opposite signal: Exit on a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.
• Time expiration: This is a swing trade, so no time expiration.
• Momentum loss: Exit if the daily chart shows declining volume for 3 consecutive days.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop: Below the low of the daily confirmation candle.
• Soft stop: A close below the weekly support level.
• Max dollar loss: $200 per trade.
• Max percent loss: 1% of account.
• Structural stop: Below the most recent swing low on the daily chart.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 1% of account.
• Daily limit: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
• Max drawdown: 10%.
• R:R requirement: Minimum 3:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing approach: Fixed fractional, 1% of account per trade.
• Volatility adjustment: Reduce size if the weekly ATR is unusually high.
• Conviction sizing: Not used in this strategy.
• Scaling in: Not used in this strategy.
• Scaling out: At 1R, 2R, and a final target.

Trade Filtering

• Market conditions: Avoid taking trades in the middle of a weekly range.
• Setups: Only take trades at key weekly support or resistance levels.
• Instruments: Large-cap stocks and major indices.
• Time restrictions: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Chop/news avoidance: Be aware of major economic news that could impact the trade.

Context Framework

• Trend direction: The weekly chart should show a clear trend leading into the level.
• VWAP relationship: Not applicable for this timeframe.
• MA relationship: The daily 20 SMA should be turning up.
• Range location: Entry taken at the edge of the weekly range.
• Higher TF alignment: Weekly and monthly charts should be in alignment.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
• Scale out: At 1R and 2R profit targets.
• Add size: Not used in this strategy.
• Fast vs slow moves: Hold through both fast and slow moves.

Time Rules

• Optimal window: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Times to avoid: Not applicable for swing trading.
• Session notes: Not applicable for swing trading.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: Perfect alignment of weekly level, daily confirmation, and 15-minute entry.
• A setup: Weekly level and daily confirmation are good, but 15-minute entry is not ideal.
• B setup: Weekly level is not as clear.
• C setup: No clear weekly level.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: SPY, IWM, DIA.
• Volume: High daily volume.
• Volatility: Moderate volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win rate: 45%.
• Avg win: 4R.
• Avg loss: 1R.
• Profit factor: 1.8.
• Expectancy: 0.8R per trade.

Failure Conditions

• Strategy fails when the weekly level does not hold.
• Avoid taking trades if the daily confirmation is weak.

Psychological Rules

• Patience is required to wait for the setup to develop over several days.
• Conviction is needed to hold the trade for a larger move.

Advanced Components

• Regime detection: Use the monthly chart to identify the overall market regime.
• Filters: Avoid taking trades if the weekly chart is in a strong downtrend.
• Correlation: Ensure the sector is also showing strength.
• MTF alignment: Monthly, weekly, and daily charts should all be in alignment.

Location

• Strongest: At major weekly support and resistance levels.
• Weakest: In the middle of a weekly range.