Ch. 28Strategy #881

Strategy #881

Higher Timeframe Order Block + Lower Timeframe Entry

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: 5-minute chart shows a rejection of a higher timeframe order block.
  • Confirmation: The higher timeframe (e.g., 4-hour) shows a clear order block.
  • Timeframe: 4-hour for order block, 5-minute for entry.
  • Location: Entry taken at the 4-hour order block.
  • Market condition: Price is reacting to a key supply or demand zone.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: The next major support or resistance level on the 4-hour chart.
  • Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 2R.
  • Trailing stop: Trail stop below the 5-minute 20 EMA.
  • Signal failure: Exit if the 4-hour order block is violated.
  • Opposite signal: Exit on a reversal pattern on the 5-minute chart.
  • Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 2 hours.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if volume dries up on the 5-minute chart.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: Above or below the 4-hour order block.
  • Soft stop: A close beyond the order block.
  • Max dollar loss: $150 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 1% of account.
  • Structural stop: Above or below the most recent swing on the 5-minute chart.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 1% of account.
  • Daily limit: 3 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 4% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 12%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 2.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed fractional, 1% of account per trade.
  • Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on the size of the order block.
  • Conviction sizing: Not used in this strategy.
  • Scaling in: Not used in this strategy.
  • Scaling out: 50% at 2R.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions: Avoid trading in the middle of a range.
  • Setups: Only take trades at clear higher timeframe order blocks.
  • Instruments: Forex pairs and stock indices.
  • Time restrictions: Any time of day.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Be aware of news events that could invalidate the order block.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: The higher timeframe trend should be considered.
  • VWAP relationship: Not a primary factor.
  • MA relationship: Not a primary factor.
  • Range location: Entry is at a key supply or demand zone.
  • Higher TF alignment: The daily chart should be aligned with the 4-hour chart.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1.5R move.
  • Scale out: At 2R profit target.
  • Add size: Not used in this strategy.
  • Fast vs slow moves: Let fast moves run, take partial profits on slow moves.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: Any time of day.
  • Times to avoid: Low-volume periods.
  • Session notes: Order blocks can be respected at any time.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup: Fresh, untested order block, strong reaction on the 5-minute chart.
  • A setup: Order block has been tested once, but still shows a reaction.
  • B setup: Order block is old and has been tested multiple times.
  • C setup: No clear order block.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SPX, NDX.
  • Volume: High liquidity.
  • Volatility: Moderate volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 55%.
  • Avg win: 3R.
  • Avg loss: 1R.
  • Profit factor: 1.65.
  • Expectancy: 0.65R per trade.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy fails when the order block is not respected.
  • Avoid taking trades at old, heavily tested order blocks.

Psychological Rules

  • Patience is required to wait for price to reach the order block.
  • Discipline is needed to take the trade even if it goes against the short-term momentum.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Use the daily chart to identify the market regime.
  • Filters: Avoid taking trades if the order block is very large.
  • Correlation: Check for correlation with other major pairs or indices.
  • MTF alignment: Daily and 4-hour charts should be aligned.

Location

  • Strongest: At fresh, untested order blocks.
  • Weakest: At old, heavily tested order blocks.